Usaavubs Technical Report 65-35 a Prolegomenon to the Forecasting of Transportation Development

The analysis proceeds with a review of the problem of forecasting transportation requirements. Several idiosyncratic models are examined and their properties specified. The forecasting of transportation stocks and commodity flows is discussed. Models of the demand for transportation services are implemented with empirical data. Graph theory as an interpretative frame of reference is introduced and the analysis moves to a detailed examination of network structure. Interand intra-nation network structures are compared. Codified route and commodity networks are factor analyzed and fundamental structures isolated. An attempt is made to simulate the morphological characteristics of transportation network. Simulations of the Northern Ireland railway network are undertaken using nearest neighbor methods. Finally^ the problems of planning and forecasting are reviewed in the light of the foregoing analyses. Criteria and objectives are discussed. An overall evaluation of available planning and forecasting capabilities is presented.